Saanich North and the Islands had the tightest three-way race in the province in 2013, and this week’s Times Colonist poll suggests that this year’s battle is also too close to call.
The poll shows that incumbent New Democrat Gary Holman, B.C. Liberal Stephen P. Roberts and Green Adam Olsen are in, statistically speaking, a tie.
Holman and Roberts each have the support of 34 per cent of voters, while Olsen is at 32 per cent. Given the margin of error — 5.6 per cent, 19 times out of 20 — the three candidates are about as close as they can get.
What does this mean? While we might tire of hearing that every vote counts, in Saanich North and the Islands, it’s true. Every vote will count — and it could be your vote that puts your preferred candidate into office.
Many votes have already been cast in advance polls. If you have not voted in advance, and can’t get to an advance poll today, be sure to vote on Tuesday. It takes a few minutes to make what could be a huge difference.
(And while you are in the polling station, appreciate the work being done by the Elections B.C. staff members there. Before they even start counting ballots, they will have already spent 12 hours putting up with the likes of you and me.)
The Times Colonist did polls in four Vancouver Island ridings — Saanich North and the Islands, because the three candidates in the tight 2013 race are back for a rematch, as well as the three ridings where the incumbent MLAs decided not to run again.
Results from Saanich North and Courtenay-Comox are in this edition. The numbers from Esquimalt-Metchosin and Cowichan Valley will be published Sunday.
Any poll should be taken with a grain of salt, given that many polls in the past few years have proven to be wrong. There were many reasons for this, including the methodology used as well as the timing.
Polls taken online or with automated phone systems are not considered to be as reliable as telephone polls with live operators. And timing matters; a poll might be accurate when it is taken, but public opinion might shift in the days between the poll and the election.
Oraclepoll, the company we hired to do our polls, relies on live questions by telephone. Oraclepoll also did a poll for us in 2013, and it was one of the polls closest to what came to pass on election day. (To be fair, our 2013 poll, like every other poll that year, saw an NDP lead.)
Given the embarrassing results here and elsewhere in recent years, polling companies have refined their methods, and are doing more to ensure accuracy.
Provincewide polls this time around are not as consistent as they were in 2013. Maybe the NDP is in the lead, and maybe it’s a dead heat between the NDP and the Liberals. It all depends on which company did the poll, and when.
It’s important to note that if the NDP and the Liberals are tied in provincewide polls, we will have a Liberal government. NDP support is concentrated in particular areas, which will mean large majorities for candidates in those areas. Liberal support is more widespread. The best polls look at individual ridings, not the province as a whole.
And of course, a poll could influence the final result. If a preferred candidate appears to have a solid lead, a voter might decide to go for a walk to the beach instead of to the polling station. That same poll might inspire supporters of the second-place candidate to cast a ballot.
In Saanich North and the Islands, it’s hard to imagine that the poll results will help decide who wins the riding. With no candidate having a clear lead, it’s a tie. Supporters of all three candidates should feel motivated to cast ballots, come rain or shine.
Let’s hope — with apologies to those Elections B.C. recruits who are facing 15-hour days — that Saanich North and the Islands will record the highest voter turnout in the province.
