The B.C. government’s housing plan has been poked and prodded by the Opposition over the past few weeks.
Every time it comes up, the B.C. Liberals get more and more dubious about it. It’s to the point where they dispute the word “plan.”
It took shape in the NDP election platform: “We will take major steps to make housing more affordable with a comprehensive 10-year plan. Through partnerships, we will build 114,000 new rental, social and co-op, and owner-purchase housing units.”
Not 113,000. Not 115,000. Exactly 114,000.
It was confirmed further in the premier’s mandate letter to Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Selina Robinson. The specificity was curious to the point of being suspicious, so critics started inquiring about the origins of that target.
Liberal MLA Sam Sullivan said if it were “100,000” he’d understand it to be a broad-brush concept. “But 114,000 implies there is some real thinking and real detail around this plan.”
Robinson said they’ve only been government for four months and work is underway on filling in the details. The figure came from consulting experts who projected existing needs out 10 years.
The premier’s mandate letter to Robinson listed the types of housing: affordable market rental, non-profit, co-op, supported social housing and owner-purchase.
But Robinson said: “There are no definitive allocations, if I might say, to each of those areas, but we do know that each of those areas needs attention … I want to be really very clear that the 114,000 units is based on the pent-up demand for housing and forecasting out over 10 years the demand for affordable housing. That’s where the number comes from.”
As far as details go, that’s it. The 114,000 target is an extrapolation of current needs out 10 years. The promise is to meet that perceived need and the plan to do so appears to be in its infancy.
There’s nothing scandalously wrong with that process. Identifying a need is the first step toward meeting it. But making a 10-year commitment to fill that need when your hold on power comes four years at a stretch is an exercise in determined optimism. And the phrasing of the promise makes it look a lot more carefully thought-out than it really was at the time.
It’s a huge commitment. B.C. typically marks 30,000 to 40,000 housing starts a year. Assuming the promise is over and above that, meeting it would mean adding about 11,000 more a year, for 10 years. Surely the NDP wouldn’t start counting routine housing starts as part of the comprehensive plan for “new” units, would it?
Liberal skepticism about the plan is compounded by an obvious sense of resentment. B.C. Liberals underestimated the housing crisis for years, then belatedly embarked on a crash program of their own before the election. But it didn’t move enough voters to give them a majority.
Now, here come the NDP with a vague promise to do a lot more. All Liberals can do is claim that some of it is built on spending they started before they were deposed.
As Liberal critic Todd Stone recalled: “The former government had put an $855-million affordable- and social-housing plan on the table that was broken down by category. It was allocated to very specific projects across the entire province, including in the minister’s own riding.”
There’s no firm costing for the government’s housing push yet, but it’s going to be significant. The September budget update has a half-billion dollars earmarked for new housing over three years, but all that money makes a very modest start.
Robinson sounded enthusiastic and determined while parrying various other Opposition questions about the housing plan. But she had nothing to offer when it came to details about how it was going to work.
That leaves the critics suggesting the target was “pulled out of thin air” and used as a lofty commitment, rather than a serious strategy.
The funding committed to date confirms that if the government does develop a serious strategy, it is going to cost some serious money.
