Before the Opposition New Democrats make any campaign moves, first they need room to move.
So they are making a concentrated push to demolish the idea that the provincial budget is balanced. The sooner they can dispel that notion, the freer they will be to outline whatever campaign ideas they have, without having to hold to what they view as an artificial constraint.
The NDP has shown no interest in cutting any government spending, other than in advertising. The theme of all their criticism is that people need more from government, not less.
And they are committed to a fairly minimal tax program at this point, with only one major tax hike proposed.
So the only option is to run deficits, should they form government. And it’s a lot easier to do that if they start from the position that B.C. is already in the red.
B.C. Liberals arrived at their purported balanced budget by way of clamping down on spending over the last few years. It has been a tedious, relentless process that’s no fun for anyone.
And when it culminated in February’s projection of a barely balanced budget, there was widespread doubt.
So the NDP is expected today to make another bid to discredit the balanced budget.
Attacking the Liberals’ credibility is only secondary. The real reason is that they expect to win the election and don’t want to be hindered by any expectation that they have to curb spending to meet B.C. Liberal targets.
As noted here earlier, every change of government in B.C. going back a generation involves the same practice.
The incoming governments all claim to find the fiscal picture is much worse than the former government portrayed.
The NDP got an early start on that tactic right after the budget, and will be continuing the push.
Here are some of the points they’ve made, and will continue to make:
• Asset sales — The previous budget a year ago mentioned in passing that several hundred million dollars worth of Crown-owned real estate and other assets were being put on the market.
One of them was the liquor-warehouse system, a privatization plan that was abandoned a few months later. About 100 properties are involved, but few details are known because disclosure would affect negotiations.
The NDP has been critical of asset sales in principle, and this one in particular, pitching it as a fire sale to raise enough money to claim the budget is balanced.
NDP finance critic Bruce Ralston said the “balanced” claim depends on selling $800 million worth of real estate in 12 months, and the process has been slow getting out of the gate.
• B.C. Hydro — The Crown corporation is booked to hand over a half-billion dollars in revenue to the government in the current year. But the corporation has a practice of putting long-term debts into deferral accounts that are being viewed suspiciously since the auditor general flagged the practice.
B.C. Hydro now has $4.2 billion in future commitments lurking in deferral accounts. Auditor general John Doyle said relying on the tactic “creates the appearance of profitability where none actually exists.”
• Health spending — The budget projects $16.5 billion in spending, up from $15.9 billion, and the NDP stance is: That’s not enough.
The budgeting process commonly projects out three years. Last year’s projection for this year was $16.7 billion. So the NDP accuses the B.C. Liberals of cutting the rate of growth by $233 million. Health critic Mike Farnworth said that means cancelled surgeries, longer waits and less innovation.
• Demand projections — The cutting that led to the balanced budget continues through the year, but there’s no explanation of how the reductions will be accomplished. The adult community-living caseload is expected to rise, but the residential cost per client is projected to drop more than $7,000. Day programs’ cost per client is projected to drop $2,000.
Similarly, the temporary assistance caseload for welfare is projected to drop by 5,000 people.
Any budget has guesswork in it. But most of the B.C. Liberal guesswork is on the optimistic side.
Step 1 for the NDP is to rid voters of the impression that any new government after the election is starting with a balanced budget. Once that’s clear, they can breathe easier when it comes to costing everything.
