As we wait for the final vote counts, the leaders of B.C.’s three main political parties face the most difficult test of their careers. By the end of the initial count, the B.C. Liberals had 43 seats, the New Democrats 41 and the Greens three. Those numbers put the Liberals one seat short of a majority, and potentially leave the Greens with the balance of power. Recounts are likely in at least four ridings, including Courtenay-Comox, which is so close it could be decided by absentee ballots.
While the situation won’t become clear for another two weeks, until absentee ballots are tallied and recounts are finished, the leaders must work to prepare for the possibility of a minority government. They cannot wait for the final counts to start talking about who will support whom and to set a political price for that support.
On Wednesday, Lt.-Gov. Judith Guichon asked Premier Christy Clark to continue governing. That’s sensible, as Clark has the largest number of seats and already has a government in place. It would have been astonishing if Guichon had done anything else.
However, Clark is just a caretaker until the results are finalized. This is a time for her to tread softly and recognize that the sharp drop in her party’s share of the popular vote shows that the Liberals are not meeting the expectations of many British Columbians.
Since the Liberals are unlikely to have more than a slim majority, Clark should be talking to her rivals. No party wants to be blamed for forcing another election.
The parties laid out clear positions before and during the campaign. They did their best to differentiate themselves from the others. They agree on some points, to a certain extent, and disagree sharply on others. The next few days will show how flexible those firm positions can be — because a minority or near-minority calls for a willingness to bend.
Clark will have to learn to work more collaboratively. She is a political animal, but can be her own worst enemy. She always looks as if she enjoys the fight too much, which turns some people off.
She hasn’t been able to shake the common perception of the Liberals as the party of the few. A hard hat and a visibility vest might make for a good photo op, but they don’t wipe away the picture of a party that is fat with donations from corporations that have the premier’s ear.
Clark has already indicated that she recognizes the need for a new approach, saying she plans to “do government differently, a lot less fighting, a lot less yelling.” She said Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver is the kind of collaborative leader she can work with.
The Liberals have worked with Weaver over the past four years, but there are major disagreements over key issues. Weaver and NDP Leader John Horgan have more in common, in terms of platforms, yet there is the appearance of bad blood. Something has to give.
The most difficult choice rests with Weaver, and he will need sound advice or exceptional instincts. His support will be in high demand, and he has an opportunity to put conditions on that support.
He could insist on electoral reform, or party status for his three-member caucus, or an end to union and corporate donations to political parties.
The fates of major projects — liquefied natural gas, the Site C dam and the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion — are in question. The Greens have opposed the Liberal positions on all those, so Weaver might ask for concessions that would be hard for Clark to accept.
Will Clark meet his demands, or will Horgan? And if both do, what else will Weaver go for?
Working with either party raises risks for the Greens. The party’s supporters were clearly against the NDP and the Liberals, so they would not be happy to see their leader climbing into bed with their sworn rivals.
Weaver’s strongest asset is his ability to plot his own course. That should rule out a formal coalition with either party, and leave him free to deal with specific issues as they arise.
If the Greens work too closely with a larger party, particularly in a formal coalition, they could lose their independent voice. If that happens, they will fade away. Caution is needed.
What if Clark offers Weaver a seat in cabinet? Weaver would have to be mad to accept one, even if it’s as environment minister. Clark could also offer to back his proposals for legislative or regulatory schemes — but when would the Liberal base revolt?
Horgan might seek a coalition, because it would make him premier and throttle the independent Green movement. Don’t count on Weaver saying yes; he is no dummy.
So where does this leave the province? Clark has been given the first chance to form a government, but she should not make serious plans until the final vote counts are in. Horgan is in limbo, waiting, like Clark, for the results.
Weaver, meanwhile, can work with key advisers as well as his new caucus members, Adam Olsen and Sonia Furstenau, developing a wish list of demands to hand to the NDP and the Liberals.
Whatever happens, remember that the voters are always right. We are likely to see more communication and co-operation between the parties than we have seen in years. They have been given the motivation and the opportunity to carve out a new path for British Columbia.
The three leaders would be wise to listen to the voters, rather than remaining comfortably insulated and surrounded by those eager to please them.
A more responsive, respectful government might be the best possible result from the 2017 election.
