Canadians listening to U.S. President Barack Obama’s state of the union address last week could not help but contrast the optimism of our prime minister with the wistful tone of regret in the president’s words. Like Justin Trudeau, Obama entered office with an ambitious reform agenda. Next week, he enters his final year of office with much of it unfulfilled. Will Trudeau suffer a similar fate?
Judging by personal popularity, Trudeau is doing well indeed. Polling puts his approval rating at 70 per cent or better, an almost-unheard-of level for a Canadian prime minister. After years of a dour, often mean-spirited federal government, Canada clearly has taken Trudeau’s sunny ways to heart. Not since U.S. president Ronald Reagan took office in 1981 has the cheerfulness of a government leader made such a difference to a country’s national mood.
This personal popularity extends to party standings. The NDP chose to campaign during weak economic times on the right-wing issue of a balanced budget, an inexplicable position for a self-professed social-democratic party of the left. Recent polling confirms that since the election, even more former NDP supporters have shifted to Trudeau’s Liberals. Politics of the centre-left is going Trudeau’s way.
Support for Trudeau is based on substance as well as personality. Within weeks of taking office, he took part in four summit meetings. Heads-of-government meetings are a tough league, but Trudeau skilfully managed on the one hand to be the symbol of a new generation of politician, and on the other to be the appropriately deferential new member of the prime ministers and presidents club. He was seen, heard and liked. Mission accomplished.
The message that Canada was back as an international player was underlined by the government’s quick action on Syrian refugee resettlement in Canada. That it did not meet the timetable Trudeau had outlined in the election campaign is of no interest internationally, and appears to be irrelevant within Canada as well. A successful and popular program was quickly put in place.
Trudeau’s performance at the Paris Climate Change Conference was a solid win. However, climate-change measures mean trouble ahead for the government. Here is where the rubber of political rhetoric will meet the road of reality. Canada’s commitments cannot be reached without serious disruption of existing regional economic interests, most notably the oil sector in Alberta and Saskatchewan. Some major tax changes will be required.
On the plus side, Obama is going to be paving the way with further serious climate-change initiatives in the U.S., so Trudeau, at least for a year, can point to the need to be in step with our major trading partner.
The relationship with First Nations is another well-handled issue. The Commission on Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women is moving forward. The prime minister’s desire for a new working relationship between the government and First Nations has been warmly welcomed by First Nations and other Canadians alike.
On the economy, the government has started with middle-class tax cuts, a popular move. It has the political advantage of having no responsibility for the worsening global economic conditions. In the mind of the public, the blame for the failure to better anticipate and prepare for tougher times rests on the shoulders of the previous prime minister and his less-than-impressive minister of finance, Joe Oliver.
That said, when the government brings down its budget, it will quickly take on ownership of worsening economic conditions. The deficit is certain to be double or triple the “modest” $10 billion talked of in the campaign.
The proposed deficit was originally expected to fund infrastructure projects.
On this campaign promise, little has been said. Past infrastructure programs have shown that proposals from municipal governments are frequently tied to special interests and fail to meet the program’s environmental or economic objectives.
Nevertheless, there are some serious proposals in the area of rapid urban transit for our big cities, on which substantial preparatory work has been done. It is surprising that these have not been given an early green light.
So, seven years hence, will Trudeau look back on his record with the same regrets over goals not reached as Obama did last week? Unfortunately, given the nature of politics and government, the answer is likely yes. But to his credit he certainly started with a remarkable 80 days.
David Anderson was the MP for Esquimalt-Saanich in the government of Justin Trudeau’s father, Pierre Elliott Trudeau, between 1968 and 1972. He was re-elected as the MP for Victoria in 1993, and served for more than a decade as minister of national revenue, fisheries and oceans, transport, and environment in the governments of Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin. He retired from politics in 2006.
