What could the election of West Vancouver-Sea to Sky BC Green Party MLA Jeremy Valeriote mean for Squamish, given some of his promises as a candidate and the tenuous situation with the provincial outcome?
We won't know for sure what power the Greens have until all remaining 65,000 ballots have been counted, along with recounts. Elections BC says the process will begin Saturday and conclude on Oct. 28.
However, if the initial Oct. 19 seat count stands — 46 for the NDP, 45 for the Conservatives and 2 for the BC Greens, then those two Green MLAs— Valeriote and Rob Botterell in Saanich North could hold the balance of power in the legislature.
For a majority, a party needs 47 seats.
The basics
If the balance of power stays the same after the final count, the NDP will need the two Green MLAs' support in “confidence” votes to reach a majority, which is necessary for the government to rule.
Not everything voted on in the legislature is a confidence vote.
Votes of confidence traditionally involve bigger financial items and include the speech from the throne and the provincial budget.
Confidence votes can also come from the opposition or the government.
"Should such a vote be lost by the government, it is normally expected to resign or request through the premier that the Legislative Assembly be dissolved in order for a provincial general election to be held," reads Parliamentary Practice in British Columbia Fifth Edition.
What could the Greens get?
Simon Fraser University history professor Nicolas Kenny, who regularly comments on provincial and federal politics for Radio-Canada, has been rapt by the whole election saga.
(Even as a kid, he said, watching politics came second only to the Stanley Cup.)
"Everyone had eyes on your riding," he said, referring to election night.
During the campaign, Valeriote was the only candidate to call for the Woodfibre LNG project to be cancelled.
"Woodfibre can absolutely be stopped by a government that has the political courage to do so. Some compensation may need to be paid to the company, but it will be considerably less than the $2 billion in public subsidies it will cost taxpayers over the life of the project," Valeriote told The Squamish Chief in the run-up to the election.
So, could that be something the Greens now raise as a condition for their support in negotiations with the NDP?
Kenny doubts the NDP would agree.
"How much they can ask for is the question, right? There's a danger of asking for too much and kind of losing credibility, and end up maybe squandering any aspiration to influence," he said.
And agreeing to scrap the already under-construction Woodfibre LNG plant would be a "hard sell" for NDP leader David Eby.
"David Eby hasn't exactly trumpeted his party's support for LNG, but it is there, and it's a big project; turning his back on that would, I think, anger a lot of people within the NDP," he said, adding that there is a tightrope to walk with NDP supporters between its more rural resource development wing—labour union members and the like—and its more urban, environmental wing.
"The economic cost of that would be enormous,” Kenny said of kiboshing Woodfibre LNG at this phase of the project.
He also referred back to 2017 when the then-BC Green leader Andrew Weaver was negotiating with the NDP's John Horgan.
The Greens weren't able to get the NDP to halt the progress of Site C.
"That went ahead. So [scrapping Woodfibre LNG] seems unlikely," Kenny said.
Could transit be the compromise?
What the Greens could get movement on is perhaps regional transit, another Valeriote commitment.
Asked during the campaign to comment on finally getting regional transit between North Vancouver and Pemberton, Valeriote said if he has to "camp out in the office of the minister of transportation" to make regional transport a reality–he will.
Kenny noted Eby's phrase "shared values" used after the election in reference to his hope for discussions with the Green Party.
"I think transit might be a more realistic thing that the Greens could get the NDP to move on, because that does align with the NDP values," Kenny said.
Other less Squamish-specific causes the Greens could put forward with some likelihood of success may be with a call for regional health centres or increased disability support, Kenny mused.
But he noted that the Greens are sort of between a "rock and a hard place;” They have bargaining power but likely don't want to push it too much.
"Their bargaining power is also limited at the same time for a couple of reasons. One is that Sonia Furstenau, has made it clear, she's not going to bargain with [Conservative leader] John Rustad, and so right away, it's NDP or nothing. And the other thing is, OK, so if it's nothing, then what does that mean? That means going potentially back to the electorate in a very short order. And, you know, nobody probably really wants that."
Kenny noted the Greens have two new MLAs just elected, who need to learn the ropes.
He added the party likely emptied its coffers on the campaign, and they weren't able to recruit candidates in all of the ridings. Plus, Furstenau doesn't have a seat of her own.
These are some reasons why the Greens likely aren't in a hurry to have another election campaign.
"The NDP will know that and will certainly dangle that in any negotiations. So I think we're more likely to see a kind of case-by-case support,” Kenny said.
Another thing the NDP will be weighing in terms of what they are willing to give up in exchange for the Greens’ support, Kenny said, is the huge support the Conservatives garnered.
Eby was described as "flip-flopping" on issues during the campaign—such as the promise to scrap the carbon tax and support for involuntary care—in an effort to gain the support of voters who may have been leaning Conservative over those issues.
"For the NDP to move too far back [to the left] on those—back to where they were, but still to move away from those positions—[could] then potentially open more ground for the Conservatives,” Kenny said.
“Because the other thing that's important to keep in mind here is … it's the Conservatives that have the momentum right now. They went from nothing to almost forming government.
"And probably the NDP is quite aware of that, and so doesn't want to bend too much to Green demand for fear of opening up further support for the Conservatives."
Ultimately, though, Kenny noted that "all of this is dependent on results sticking the way they are" as of Oct. 19, and that is yet to be determined.
"You never know," he said.
~With files from Cindy E. Harnett/Times Colonist
