A recent Angus Reid public opinion poll must have brought a smile to Premier John Horgan’s face. If the results are accurate, his party leads the opposition Liberals by a stunning 19 points.
Specifically, among decided voters the NDP have the support of 48 per cent, compared to just 29 per cent for the Liberals. The Greens are at 14 per cent, and the B.C. Conservative Party lags behind at eight.
In Metro Vancouver, home to nearly half the ridings in B.C., the NDP lead is even greater — 53 per cent to 26 for the Liberals.
Providing icing on the cake, four out of five voters say the government’s response to the COVID-19 epidemic has been “good.”
Of course, polls have their limitations. The NDP were up seven to nine points over the Liberals in the last days of the 2013 campaign, and lost to Christy Clark. The only poll that counts is the election itself.
Nevertheless Horgan must be tempted. In the summer he suggested there could be an “opportunity” to call an election this fall, and quickly took it back.
But a 19-point lead must leave him wondering how much better it can get.
If he waits until next year — the election must be held no later than October 2021 —he might lose his government’s most potent weapon, the ability to dominate the news cycle with near-daily COVID-19 announcements.
In contrast, Liberal leader Andrew Wilkinson has been forced to look on helplessly from the sidelines. Indeed, over the past few months, he has been nearly invisible.
Some of this perhaps is due to Wilkinson’s inherently mild and non-combative personality. He’s a thoughtful leader who, in other circumstances, would make a good premier.
Nevertheless the Liberals must be wondering if they made the right choice when they selected him over former Surrey mayor Dianne Watts.
Watts was popular in the Metro Vancouver region. It’s hard to imagine the NDP running up a 27-point lead there with her at the helm.
But that’s water under the bridge. The dilemma Horgan faces is that if he chooses not to call an election this fall, and loses one next year, he will never be forgiven for letting a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity slip away.
Certainly, there are reasons for caution. A third of respondents in that opinion survey said they would not be comfortable going to the polls during the coronavirus outbreak. That figure rises to 40 per cent among New Democrat supporters.
As well, the B.C. Green Party has been leaderless for eight months, since Andrew Weaver stepped down in January.
His successor will be announced on Monday, meaning he or she will have little chance to organize a province-wide campaign if a snap election is called. And that may generate backlash among Green supporters the NDP might hope to bring on board, or at any rate not offend.
On the other hand, in the go-now column, most governments prefer to call an election after bringing down a good news budget. But next year’s budget will bring into stark relief just how bad the province’s finances really are.
In July, Finance Minister Carole James forecast a deficit for the current year in the $12.5 billion range. Back in February she was predicting a surplus.
Nothing definite has been said about 2021, but it must be expected another barrel of red ink awaits. That will open a door for the Liberals to hark back to the NDP’s last term in office, when fiscal discipline was all but abandoned.
Most likely it comes down to this. If health experts predict a ramp up of the COVID epidemic through the fall and winter, exacerbated by the flu season, it may be best for Horgan to wait. An election now might appear opportunistic.
However, if the epidemic tails off, by next spring the dominant issue will be economic and financial rebuilding. And that plays more directly into traditional Liberal strengths.
If this is where the future lies, Horgan might be well advised to seize the moment now.
In either case, this must be the first election in our province’s history when a virus set the date.