The snow was flying a little early this year.
Much of the Peace Region witnessed the first snowfall of the season yesterday — two weeks before the official end of summer — while Environment Canada issued snowfall warnings for Fort Nelson and Muncho Lake.
And this is just the beginning, according to one group. A harsh winter is in store for Canada, says the 2015 Old Farmer’s Almanac — but don’t stock up on winter socks just yet, warns Environment Canada.
The 200-year old guide’s latest edition predicts an especially cold winter followed by an especially hot summer. However, David Phillips, a senior climatologist with Environment Canada, said that his preliminary prediction is that it won’t be so bad, judging by the severity of last year’s winter.
“It was certainly cold across the prairies and a good chunk of Canada. I’ve been saying that it’s hard for nature to produce two years in a row with a tough winter,” he said. “Our seasons are warmer, all of them — and particularly winter — so my sense is that they may be totally wrong on this one.”
Phillips added that in the Northeast in particular, there is a weak El Nino formation expected to come through that would warm the region.
“What I’ve seen today is that the models seem to suggest that it will come out,” he said, pegging the likelihood at 65 per cent, which he added was a slightly lower chance than the same models had predicted a few weeks ago.
“The feeling is that it will come through and it’ll be weak, but it does generally mean even in a weak state, it does generally bring for your area more Pacific air than Arctic air,” Phillips said.
The almanac claims to be 80 per cent right, a claim that Phillips finds dubious.
“I don’t even think they’re 50 per cent right, to tell you the truth, because nobody ever challenges them,” he said.
The original Old Farmer’s Almanac was founded in 1792. The newer Canadian version has been published annually since 1982. Its pages are filled with humorous advice and tips for things like gardening and cooking.
Phillips did admit that he enjoys the Old Farmer’s Almanac, but not for the forecasts.
