A new bridge to replace the George Massey Tunnel will not reduce traffic congestion or travel times during the morning rush hour unless it is tolled, according to a preliminary regional analysis of the new crossing.
The analysis, conducted by Coriolis Research on behalf of TransLink, compares a hypothetical eight-lane bridge — tolled and untolled — with the existing four-lane George Massey Tunnel, with and without tolls, during the morning rush hour between 7:30 and 8:30 a.m. in 2045.
“An eight-lane tolled bridge appears to manage the growth in auto traffic demand and may actually prolong the useful capacity of the bridge beyond 2045,” states the report, which will go to Metro Vancouver’s transportation committee on Wednesday.
The B.C. government, which announced a new bridge to replace the tunnel, is expected to reveal details on the size and scope of the new crossing this spring. TransLink chose an eight-lane bridge for comparison because it’s believed the new crossing will be larger than the existing tunnel.
The study is aimed at understanding how additional capacity and changes in the network would affect regional travel behaviour, and how that might affect the distribution of population and jobs over the long term.
An untolled eight-lane bridge, for example, would see a 40-per-cent increase in demand and traffic on the crossing by 2045, resulting in a 10-per-cent, or 13-minute, increase in travel times between 8th Avenue in Surrey and the Oak Street Bridge.
By comparison, a tolled crossing would see only a five per cent increase in traffic, and result in a 13-minute reduction in travel time, according to a memo written by Tamim Raad, TransLink’s director of strategic policy and planning. Tunnel traffic would likely jump by 12 per cent in 2045, compared with today.
The analysis assumes tolls would be still in place on Port Mann and Golden Ears Bridges.
Raad also noted a new bridge could shift the growth of single-family residential units to South Surrey and South Delta from Richmond and Steveston, with more rapid development of light industrial land in Richmond, South Surrey and South Delta at the expense of South Burnaby and North Surrey.
A new eight-lane tolled bridge could also potentially draw some auto traffic from the Alex Fraser Bridge, Pattullo Bridge and Port Mann Bridge and contribute to an increase in traffic on the Oak Street Bridge and Queensborough Bridge.
