Pro Picks is a weekly column where AP Pro Football Writer Rob Maaddi shares his picks for upcoming games. For all previous Pro Picks, head here.
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Six teams are road favorites and two more are slight underdogs in Week 10.
The 49ers, Bills, Vikings, Falcons, Eagles and Lions each are favorites on the road. The Jets and Dolphins both are only 1-point underdogs on the road, according to BetMGM Sportsbook.
The Broncos-Chiefs matchup is the only one of four division games featuring both teams with a winning record.
An AFC North matchup kicks off the week with the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the Baltimore Ravens.
Pro Picks expects a close one.
Cincinnati (4-5) at Baltimore (6-3)
Line: Ravens minus 6 1/2
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are seeking their second straight season sweep of Joe Burrow and the Bengals in an important AFC North matchup on Thursday night. Baltimore beat Cincinnati 41-38 in overtime on Oct. 6. The Bengals are 4-2 against the spread in their past six games overall, but 0-5 ATS in the past five vs. the Ravens and 2-8 ATS in their past 10 games vs. division opponents.
RAVENS: 31-27
Atlanta (6-3) at New Orleans (2-7)
Line: Falcons minus 3 1/2
Kirk Cousins has helped the Falcons reach first place in the NFC South and Atlanta isn’t looking back. Meanwhile, the Saints have collapsed after a promising 2-0 start. New Orleans fired Dennis Allen and promoted special teams coordinator Darren Rizzi, who makes his coaching debut in this one. The Falcons have lost 13 of the previous 18 games in New Orleans. But these are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Falcons are 4-1 against the spread in their past five games overall while the Saints are 0-5 ATS in that span.
BEST BET: FALCONS: 27-17
Pittsburgh (6-2) at Washington (7-2)
Line: Commanders minus 2 1/2
Russell Wilson has ignited Pittsburgh’s offense and the Steelers are coming off a bye rested and improved following the additions of wide receiver Mike Williams and edge rusher Preston Smith at the trade deadline. The surprising NFC East-leading Commanders, led by Jayden Daniels, made the biggest splash, adding four-time Pro Bowl cornerback Marshon Lattimore. The Steelers are 9-3 against the spread in their past 12 games overall. Washington is 7-2 ATS this season.
UPSET SPECIAL: STEELERS: 23-20
New York Giants (2-7) vs. Carolina (2-7), in Munich, Germany
Line: Giants minus 6
Fans in Germany are seeing the worst of the NFL. The Giants have difficulty scoring, averaging a league-low 15.4 points per game. Bryce Young led the Panthers to a win last week against the Saints and will get another opportunity for a team that needs to find out if he has a future in Carolina.
GIANTS: 19-17
New England (2-7) at Chicago (4-4)
Line: Bears minus 6
No. 1 pick Caleb Williams lost to No. 2 pick Daniels on a Hail Mary two weeks ago. Now, Williams and the Bears face No. 3 pick Drake Maye and the Patriots. Williams is much better at home than on the road — 105.1 vs. 67.2 passer rating home/away. The Bears have won eight straight games overall at Soldier Field, including three this season. Maye has shown playmaking ability that should give New England fans hope.
BEARS: 24-16
Buffalo (7-2) at Indianapolis (4-5)
Line: Bills minus 4
Josh Allen is playing outstanding, mistake-free ball and the Bills are running away with the AFC East. They’ve beat softer teams on their schedule but have tougher challenges ahead, including this one against Joe Flacco and the Colts on the road. All nine of Indianapolis’ games this season have been decided by one possession. The Colts are 6-1 against the spread in their past seven games overall and 6-0 ATS in their past six games vs. AFC opponents.
BILLS: 26-23
Denver (5-4) at Kansas City (8-0)
Line: Chiefs minus 8 1/2
The unbeaten two-time defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs are starting to hit their stride on offense as Patrick Mahomes and De’Andre Hopkins have made a quick connection. The Chiefs have owned the Broncos, winning 16 of the previous 17 games. But this is a different Denver team. The Broncos are on the rise behind coach Sean Payton and rookie QB Bo Nix. They’re 5-2 against the spread in their past seven games overall and 4-1 ATS in their past five games vs. Kansas City. The Chiefs are 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 games overall.
CHIEFS: 26-20
San Francisco (4-4) at Tampa Bay (4-5)
Line: 49ers minus 5 1/2
The injury-depleted Bucs have to rebound on a short week after a disappointing finish Monday night when they nearly handed the Chiefs their first loss. Baker Mayfield and the offense keep putting up points even without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. But the defense is allowing 27 points per game. The refreshed 49ers are coming off a bye and could see the return of Christian McCaffrey. San Francisco has used strong second halves to make deep playoff runs each of the past two seasons. With upcoming road games against Green Bay and Buffalo and tough home games against Seattle, Chicago, the Rams, the 49ers can’t afford to slip up in this one.
49ERS: 27-20
Minnesota (6-2) at Jacksonville (2-7)
Line: Vikings minus 4 1/2
The Vikings kick off a stretch of three consecutive road games. They found a way to win last week despite three turnovers by Sam Darnold. The Jaguars had a chance to complete a stunning comeback win after trailing Philadelphia 22-0, but Trevor Lawrence’s interception on a poor throw on first down from the 14 cost Jacksonville. The Jaguars have lost five games by five points or fewer.
VIKINGS: 26-23
Tennessee (2-6) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
Line: Chargers minus 7 1/2
The Chargers have won consecutive games by at least 17 points and start a stretch of three straight home games. The passing game has opened up behind Justin Herbert and J.K. Dobbins is third in the AFC in yards rushing with 620. Maybe Will Levis can return and spark the Titans, who are already looking ahead to next year.
CHARGERS: 24-13
Philadelphia (6-2) at Dallas (3-5)
Line: Eagles minus 7 1/2
No Dak Prescott means no chance for Dallas. The Cowboys were already in trouble before Prescott sustained a hamstring injury that will force him to miss multiple games. Jalen Hurts is back to playing like the 2022 MVP runner-up and the Eagles are rolling with four straight wins. Saquon Barkley has been a major addition for Philadelphia, which has the No. 3 defense in the league.
EAGLES: 30-16
New York Jets (3-6) at Arizona (5-4)
Line: Cardinals minus 1
Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson showed what they can do together last week. Now, the Jets have to stack wins to have any chance of climbing into the playoff race. The Cardinals are surprise leaders in the NFC West and have already surpassed their win total in each of the past two seasons.
JETS: 23-20
Detroit (7-1) at Houston (6-3)
Line: Lions minus 3 1/2
Jared Goff is playing at an MVP level and the high-powered Lions have won six in a row. They added three-time Pro Bowl edge rusher Za’Darius Smith to bolster the defense and are primed to push for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. The Texans need to protect C.J. Stroud better or they won’t go anywhere in January. Relying on Joe Mixon running the ball will help.
LIONS: 24-22
Miami (2-6) at Los Angeles Rams (4-4)
Line: Rams minus 1
After an impressive road win, the Rams find themselves slight favorites at home vs. a two-win team. It’s a strange line. Clearly, oddsmakers are giving the Dolphins a ton of respect. Tua Tagovailoa is 0-2 since returning from a concussion but has played superb. He has completed 80.3% of his passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions. With Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back from injuries, Matthew Stafford and L.A.’s offense is on track. The Rams have won three in a row.
DOLPHINS: 27-26
Last week: Straight up: 11-4. Against spread: 7-8.
Overall: Straight up: 94-44. Against spread: 72-64-2.
Prime-time: Straight up: 21-10. Against spread: 14-16-1.
Best Bet: Straight up: 7-2. Against spread: 6-3.
Upset Special: Straight up: 6-3. Against spread: 6-3.
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AP NFL: https://apnews.com/hub/nfl
Rob Maaddi, The Associated Press
