Mountain snowpacks that act as slow-melting water reservoirs and help feed drinking-water supplies, wells and rivers through the spring and summer are getting dangerously thin in British Columbia.
Those depleting snowpacks could translate into water shortages and drought conditions in the months ahead — particularly on Vancouver Island — affecting everything from drinking water and growing food to hydro-electric power, fish habitat and wildfires, say experts.
“It’s dire, unprecedented,” said Aaron Hill, executive director of Watershed Watch Salmon Society. “What this tells us is it’s going to be all hands on deck to conserve. It’s really a continuation of the drought we had last year.”
The province’s River Forecast Centre on Thursday said snowpack levels on Vancouver Island are sitting at just 30% of what is considered normal this time of year. That’s less than half of the overall provincial average of 61% — compared with about 79% of normal last year.
“Low snowpack and seasonal runoff forecasts combined with warm seasonal weather forecasts and lingering impacts from previous drought are creating significantly elevated drought hazards for this upcoming spring and summer,” the B.C. River Forecast Centre said in its snowpack survey and water supply bulletin dated Feb. 1 and released on Thursday.
The Island snowpack has been thinning out as increasing rainfall and high temperatures associated with the El Niño effect depletes snow. The last snowpack survey released in early January showed the snowpack on Vancouver Island was already low, at 39% of normal, and has slipped further.
The Island was one of six regions across British Columbia that saw a decrease in the snowpack from January.
Only the North Thompson and Stikine regions recorded more snow in the February report compared with the same period in 2023. The Stikine has the highest snowpack, but is still 90% of the average.
The B.C. River Forecast Centre said that for this time of year, the average snowpack in B.C. has hit its lowest level in the past 45 years.
On Thursday, Premier David Eby told reporters he’s concerned about what could be “some of the most dramatic drought conditions that have been seen in our lifetime.”
Eby said he was “really worried” about the summer months and what it could mean for drought, power production and fire conditions. “Knowing that water levels behind dams for [hydro power] are low, knowing that farmers didn’t have enough water to grow feed for their cattle last summer, knowing the forest-fire impacts we’ve seen, I am really worried about the summer that’s coming up,” Eby told an unrelated news conference on Thursday.
About 100 wildfires continue to smoulder in the province, holdovers from last year’s record-breaking fire season, the premier said.
Although two or three months remain in British Columbia’s snow season, the River Forecast Centre isn’t optimistic. “While conditions may change slightly, current trends in low snowpack are expected to persist,” said David Campbell, head of the River Forecast Centre.
Campbell said similar trends were seen in 2016 on Vancouver Island when an El Niño pattern beat down snowpacks.
In the snowpack report, long-term weather forecasts from Environment Canada indicate “very high likelihood” of above-normal temperatures through to April, and a moderate likelihood from May to July.
Hill said everyone is hopeful more snow will drop and stick at higher elevations, and the province has a wet spring and early summer to replenish wells, reservoirs and rivers.
He said the province and the federal government have to step up with more money to continue drought-mitigation measures, including stream-restoration and wetlands projects. They also need to crack down on unregulated and unregistered well users, and local governments should impose water restrictions sooner than they have in previous years.
“We need to make that connection [that water is essential] across society,” said Hill.
“That doesn’t just mean taking shorter showers. It involves everybody and all levels of government.”
Hill said salmon depend on snowmelt to feed streams and rivers at every stage in their lifecycle, noting last summer’s drought led to several fish kills, where rivers either ran dry or the shallow water heated up to temperatures lethal for salmon. One of the most significant fish kills happened on the Cowichan River last summer.
Hill said the lower the snowpack heading into the spring, the earlier waterways are likely to reach flow levels that are “critically low” for salmon and their ecosystems.
“We could get lucky and have a nice wet, rainy, spring and summer and it could take a lot of the sting out of this, but if it’s not, then we’re in trouble,” he said.
Most communities on the Island were in some stages of water restrictions over the spring and summer last year, restricting water use to drinking and sanitary uses. Communities like Tofino hit critical levels late last summer, but were saved by late summer rains.
Nathan Cullen, minister of water, land and resource stewardship, said the unless conditions become wetter in the months ahead, the potential for drought is “very real.”
He said the province has already increased funding for community emergency response ($369 million), agriculture water infrastructure ($20 million), and fisheries protection ($15 million) and has a $100-million watershed security fund.
The Ministry of Agriculture and Food is hosting in-person workshops in more than 30 communities to help farmers prepare for drought and provide information about financial supports. The first workshops are scheduled for Feb. 15 in Cobble Hill and Feb. 16 in Port Alberni.
Cullen said the ministry is communicating with water licensees ahead of the drought season through town halls and workshops.
Sooke Lake Reservoir, which provides Greater Victoria’s water supply, does not rely on snowpack melt, but almost entirely on rainfall.
Capital Regional District spokesman Andy Orr said although the Sooke Reservoir reached 100% capacity on Sunday, conservation measures are still necessary to ensure that there is adequate water to meet regional needs throughout the drier summer months.
He said initial watering restrictions will start May 1 and the CRD will be monitoring regional and provincial
drought levels, adjusting its water conservation stages
when needed.
— with files from Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press
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