Whatever plays are made in this brand-new game, you can bet on one thing — self-preservation is the cardinal concern of everyone involved.
Early today, the B.C. Liberals and the NDP were close enough that the Green Party breakthrough on Vancouver Island could decide the future of either major party. B.C. faces the prospect of a hung parliament for the first time in 65 years.
The Liberal government, even with a two-point lead in the popular vote, is either hanging by a thread, or staring at the end of a 16-year run in office this morning, depending on late changes to the count. The NDP is inches away from the win they desperately need to avoid disintegrating. And it’s B.C. Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver who appears to hold the fate of both parties — and both leaders — in his hands.
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The apparent minority situation or bare majority that could be taking shape in B.C.’s 41st parliament robs everybody of the certainty that B.C. elections usually deliver. Whatever was decided Tuesday night, it wasn’t decided very firmly, and the decision could last much less than the standard four years. The last time a B.C. vote was this close was in 1952. The government lasted nine months.
Liberals will do almost anything to preserve their hold on power. The NDP will do almost anything to break it. After the legislature adjourned in March, I asked Weaver in the hallway what he’d do if there was a tie between the major parties and he held a few seats.
“Wait for a phone call,” he said.
They’ll be coming as early as this morning, because this thing has to be decided fast and there is a lot of dickering to do.
While the major parties’ needs are much more apparent and desperate, Greens have a certain self-preservation need, too. They need to cement the foothold they have in the legislature. And the easiest way to do that is to make electoral reform — specifically, a change to proportional representation — the dealbreaker.
Changing the rules to abandon the current system would almost guarantee them a base of at least a handful of seats. The huge job of translating their share of the popular vote into actual seats would be vastly easier. No more huddling on their island enclave looking for elusive breakthroughs.
Even at their standard minimal vote share of eight per cent, they’d have a floor number of seats below which it would be almost impossible to fall. And if they maintain their new high of 15-16 per cent, they’d have a respectable caucus that would be very difficult to build under existing rules.
Weaver said early on that electoral reform was important to him. But he’s been noncommittal since then about any essential deal-makers he would require in a minority situation. NDP Leader John Horgan has been keen on electoral reform as well. Liberals have never engaged on the issue. It looks like there is potential for them to develop a sudden passionate interest in the topic.
The predicament Liberal Leader Christy Clark is in now developed in the 2013 campaign, when she oversold a prosperity theme to a degree that was impossible to meet. Even with a remarkable job-creation record, the lowest unemployment in Canada and five balanced budgets, she lost enough seats to put her future in some doubt.
Her persistent fudging on facts large and small contributed. So did the inability to recognize the perception of corruption that was taking shape over the big donations to the Liberals from the business world. For someone with sharp political judgment on most things, it was baffling to watch her ignore that until the last minute, when she came up with a reform panel idea to deflect it.
Horgan is in the same jam, but slightly happier to be there. He slammed the Liberals for three years straight and it paid off. The party will be cursing the Greens for stealing what would have been an outright victory from them. But that will be strictly in private.
Publicly, they’ll be delighted to work with them, and willing to do anything for the chance.
