If Sheila Malcolmson wins the provincial byelection in Nanaimo, she’ll get job security not offered by her current job as a member of parliament, says a Royal Roads University associate professor.
“She inherits one of the safest NDP provincial ridings in B.C., and joins the NDP government,” said David Black of Royal Roads’ School of Communications and Culture.
The Nanaimo-Ladysmith MP announced this week that she will be seeking the NDP nomination for the seat vacated by MLA Leonard Krog, who will be sworn in as Nanaimo’s new mayor on Nov. 5.
Black pointed out that Malcolmson won the federal seat with 23,651 votes in 2015, ahead of the Liberal challenger, who drew 16,753 votes, but she might not have been able to pull that off again. The riding includes an area north of Nanaimo with a record of voting small-c conservative, which means her chances of retaining the seat for the NDP next year were not guaranteed. The next federal election is set for Oct. 21, 2019.
“The federal NDP’s chances in the fall 2019 election are, at this point, mixed and uneven — as the Liberals have moved left, the federal NDP organization is cash-poor, and they have a new and interesting leader in Jagmeet Singh who has yet to win his own seat,” Black said.
Singh is the federal NDP candidate in Burnaby South, a seat previously held by Kennedy Stewart, who won it for the NDP in 2015 by only 500-plus votes.
Kennedy vacated the seat last month to focus on his successful bid to become Vancouver mayor. No date has been announced for that byelection.
Premier John Horgan and Krog stood by Malcolmson when she announced her move to provincial politics. That support “testifies to how committed the B.C. NDP are to holding onto this seat and preserving power,” Black said.
The provincial byelection is crucial to the fate of the B.C. government, since the NDP holds power only because of an alliance with three Green Party members. The party wanted a strong candidate for the riding that has been Krog’s since 2005, Black said.
“They’re taking it with utmost seriousness, even if it inconveniences the federal NDP in putting the federal seat in greater danger without its incumbent MP running again in fall 2019.”
The Green Party has said it will run a candidate in the Nanaimo riding, but has not announced a name. The B.C. Liberal Party also has yet to announce a candidate.
Black raised what he said is “utter speculation” that the Nanaimo-Ladysmith riding might be a Plan B if Burnaby South is seen as too risky for Singh, given how close the 2015 results were in that riding.
“We’ll see — but Singh has to win a seat, and Nanaimo-Ladysmith is safer than Burnaby South. There aren’t a lot of safe federal NDP seats that are also available,” he said.
It is not yet known if a byelection will be held for Malcolmson’s seat.
