A hotly contested Conservative nomination race to represent Cowichan-Malahat-Langford on Vancouver Island is just a precursor to the battle ahead, says Norman Ruff.
“It’s going to be one of the closest fought on the Island,” said Ruff, a University of Victoria professor emeritus in political science.
The ridings on Vancouver Island have been redrawn for the Oct. 19 election, and Ruff expects most of the seven races will be tight ones between the Conservatives and the NDP as a result.
The new Cowichan-Malahat-Langford riding, for example, includes parts of the old Nanaimo-Cowichan and Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca ridings.
In 2011, the NDP defeated the Conservatives by 6,775 votes in Nanaimo-Cowichan and 406 in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca. If you use the 2011 votes with the 2015 boundaries, the NDP’s margin of victory is just 253 in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford, Ruff said. In the new Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke riding, the party’s share of the vote drops to 37.6 per cent from the 39.4 per cent seen in Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca.
That thin margin is part of the reason why the Conservative nomination race this month in Cowichan-Malahat-Langford is so key, Ruff said.
The Conservatives are last among the four major national parties to choose a candidate in the riding, with the selection meeting scheduled for Aug. 29. At least four people are vying to represent the party:
• Martin Barker, a chiropractor and recent Duncan councillor
• Melissa Hailey, a former councillor in North Cowichan and Sidney
• Jeremy Smyth, a special education teacher and assistant at Duncan Christian School
• John Koury, a former North Cowichan councillor
Whoever wins the nod will face off against the NDP’s Alistair MacGregor, constituency assistant for MP Jean Crowder; Green candidate Fran Hunt-Jinnouchi, co-owner and operator of Evedar’s Bistro in Langford; and Liberal Maria Manna, franchise owner of 4 Pillars Debt Restructuring. Crowder is not running in this election.
But Cowichan-Malahat-Langford isn’t likely to be the only close race.
Going into the election, there are six Vancouver Island ridings: Two held by the Conservatives (Vancouver Island North and Nanaimo-Alberni); three by the NDP (Victoria, Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca and Nanaimo-Cowichan) and one by the Green Party (Saanich-Gulf Islands).
With the newly drawn electoral boundaries for the 2015 federal election, Vancouver Island now has seven seats.
The NDP is banking on winning six of the seven Island seats, while the Conservatives hope they will increase their share.
However, considering most of the 2011 races were marginal wins, “both are probably vulnerable,” Ruff said.
The Liberals are focusing on B.C., particularly on the Lower Mainland, but aren’t likely to win seats on the Island, he said.
Other close races include the new electoral district of Courtenay-Alberni, where Vancouver Island North Conservative MP John Duncan has chosen to run, Ruff said.
“Duncan is high profile and most likely will retain his seat, but he’ll have to fight for it,” he said. “The fact he moved [ridings] shows he was concerned.”
Duncan is running against Green Glenn Sollitt, Island territory manager for Norpac; Liberal Carrie Powell-Davidson, two-term Parksville councillor, and NDP Gord Johns, executive director of the Tofino-Long Beach Chamber of Commerce.
In Esquimalt-Saanich-Sooke, incumbent NDP Randall Garrison will defend his seat against a strong campaign by the Conservatives, represented by former Colwood councillor Shari Lukens, and a high-energy campaign by the Greens, represented by Frances Litman, a photographer, Ruff said. Liberal David Merner, a lawyer, is also running.
Garrison beat his Conservative opponent by just 406 votes in 2011, and Ruff expects this year’s race to also be tight, with support for the Greens playing a role in the outcome.
In Victoria, NDP Murray Rankin will fight to retain his seat against the Green candidate Jo-Ann Roberts, a former CBC radio host.
The Greens lost the Victoria byelection by a small margin and have put a lot of effort into Roberts’ campaign.
“Rankin has to be running very hard,” Ruff said.
Rankin and Roberts will face Conservative John Rizzuti, a retired school principal, and Liberal Cheryl Thomas, a business consultant and educator.
Every expectation is that Green Party leader Elizabeth May’s seat is rock solid in Saanich Gulf Islands, Ruff said.
Alicia Cormier, a two-term Central Saanich councillor with three decades in management experience, is expected to be acclaimed as the NDP candidate on Aug. 15 at the Tsawout Community Centre.
Also running in Saanich-Gulf Islands is Liberal Tim Kane, co-founder of Delta Media Inc.
The Conservatives have not chosen a candidate to represent the riding, which was held by Conservative cabinet member Gary Lunn from 1997 to 2011.
The deadline for candidates to file their nomination papers with Elections Canada is Sept. 28.
