If the options are white or wet this Christmas, the smart money is on a Dec. 25 with rain rather than snow.
Not only does Environment Canada put the statistical odds of a snowy Christmas for the capital region at 16 per cent — based on weather patterns from 1997 to 2021 — but a cold snap expected to hit early next week is likely to be followed by a warming trend after a few days.
Environment Canada meteorologist Bobby Sekhon said to be prepared for a shift from relatively mild temperatures back into some cold weather starting Sunday, with arctic air heading down from the Yukon toward B.C.
“It should arrive on Vancouver Island sometime later this weekend into the early part of next week, so we’re looking at a Sunday-Monday transition.”
That could be accompanied by a chance of flurries around the region, although weather specialists are not seeing a lot of moisture in the forecast so far, Sekhon said.
“But certainly it’s looking to get cold enough to have flurries starting on Sunday.”
Monday and Tuesday are looking “a little bit more interesting” in terms of the chances of snow, he said.
“Right now that’s still quite a ways out, so I’d say there’s a lot of uncertainty in the snow forecast.”
Daytime temperatures from Sunday through Tuesday could be around the freezing mark, with overnight lows going down to about -4 or -5 C.
Wednesday is expected to be the coldest day of the cold spell. “It’s going to be a lot colder than it is this week,” Sekhon said.
The average for this time of year is 7 C during the day with lows of about 2 C.
Sekhon said the warming trend anticipated toward the end of next week could bring rain, which will diminish the chances of having a white Christmas, especially for the City of Victoria. “But things could change still.”
He said an official white Christmas from a meteorological standpoint means at least two centimetres of snow on the ground on Christmas morning.
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