It’s said their only friends are the mountains. And for a people without their own country, their destiny has been to live among others, often unwelcome or even shunned, always obsessed about some day having a country of their own.
Throughout their troubled history, including betrayal of a promise by Britain and France of an independent state for the Kurdish people, the Kurds always kept the hope alive that some day they would realize their dream of a country for all the Kurdish people scattered throughout the Middle East and beyond, their people living as significant minorities, particularly in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran.
That long-held desire might no longer be beyond their reach.
Ironically, the prospect of the Kurds somehow finally having a homeland is tied to the current death and destruction now being waged in the Middle East, especially in Iraq and Syria, both convulsed in sectarian violence, hundreds of thousands fleeing for their lives.
The bloody fighting going on in those countries has created unspeakable violence and a massive refugee situation with more than a million people on the move. It has also paradoxically had the unintended effect of benefitting some of the region’s Kurdish population, particularly in Iraq, where Kurds represent about 17 per cent of the population.
(Although the number of Kurds in Turkey is in the millions, a Kurdish uprising there is in abeyance as Turkish authorities and Kurdish insurgents are observing an ostensible ceasefire during negotiations over ending hostilities.)
While the violence in Syria is extremely important and the role of Syrian Kurds in controlling areas of that violence-wracked war zone is clearly significant, it’s the situation in Iraq that is of particular concern to outside countries, especially because of Iraq’s oil fields, among the largest in the world.
Thanks to the violent military offensive of the extremist Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, which has threatened the very existence of the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki in Baghdad, there has been a major change in the status and future prospects of Iraqi Kurds, who already exercised a form of quasi-independent rule in three northern provinces under the terms of the Iraqi constitution.
Confronted by the rapid advances achieved by ISIS, when al-Maliki’s Shiite-dominated forces hastily fled the Sunni forces of ISIS, the Kurdish authorities quickly took advantage of the central government’s weakness to extend their own control over Kirkuk, which is located in a region of massive oil wealth and which Kurds also view as historically important for them.
Despite the fact that the population of Kirkuk also has a significant number of non-Kurds, the Kurdish government, led by Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani, is extremely unlikely to give it up, even when the current fighting eventually ends.
The fact the Kurdish autonomous government also has arguably one of the best military forces in the region (the Peshmerga) provides them with considerable clout vis a vis any counter forces in coming days.
Turkey once would never have backed any possibility of a Kurdish state. Now it has become so involved in the viability of the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq that it has become not only one of the biggest investors there — creating an economic boom in the process — but also has become directly involved in facilitating oil exports. The Obama government has made it clear it opposes Kurdish independence, as it would worsen an already unstable situation.
One factor that could cause problems for the Kurdish government in Iraq is the flood of Iraqis fleeing there to avoid the fighting. The problems involved in dealing with such a large-scale influx could create serious problems for the authorities.
What effect the situation in Iraq might have for the much-smaller Kurdish enclave in Syria, once the fighting there eventually ends, is an open question, as is the future of the millions of Kurds living in Turkey.
Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator. He served in Turkey.
