Whoever said Canadian politics are boring and monotonously predictable?
It certainly couldn’t have been Foreign Minister John Baird or Conservative MP Eve Adams, whose recent actions could have a bearing on how Canada’s political parties fare in forthcoming national elections.
Baird suddenly announced he was resigning and would be leaving Parliament only a few months before the election scheduled for October.
His announcement clearly stunned not just ordinary Canadians, but also apparently his boss, Prime Minister Stephen Harper. To add further drama, Baird offered no compelling reasons behind his resignation.
A few days later, Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau called a press conference to introduce Adams, who has decided to abandon Harper’s Conservative party in favour of the Liberals.
Adams explained that her decision was because the Conservative party under Harper is no longer the party she joined as a teenager, the party having allegedly become mean-spirited under Harper’s leadership.
The Conservative party quickly countered that Adams had recently been informed she would be banned from being a Tory candidate in the forthcoming election, due to her questionable actions while attempting to win the Tory nomination in a new Ontario riding.
Regardless of Adams’ motivation for jumping ship and the widespread view that she could have considerable difficulty in getting elected as a Liberal, most political observers concluded that the real catch for the Liberals was not Adams but rather her fiancé, Dimitri Soudas, a former high-level adviser to Harper, an insider with an unequalled understanding of the Conservative party, including its election strategy.
As if these developments weren’t troublesome enough for Harper in the runup to the election, they come on the heels of the recent resignation from cabinet of Rob Merrifield, the respected MP from Alberta responsible for Canada’s trade relations with the U.S.
Merrifield also left the Harper government on short notice, to become Alberta’s representative to the U.S. on energy issues.
The exodus of several other Conservative MPs has, not surprisingly, raised questions within Conservative ranks regarding how they will do during the forthcoming election.
Now there is some speculation that, due to the abrupt resignation of Baird, coupled with Adams’ defection, Harper himself might increasingly find his own leadership questioned by normally loyal party members. Even one of the Conservatives’ former MPs, Albertan Myron Thompson, expressed his concern over the prime minister’s lack of commitment to the “values we had back in 1993.”
Adding to the uncertainty swirling around the issue of Harper’s future prospects, there are rumours that this month, Harper might indicate his intention to step down as leader and supposedly is considering calling a leadership vote by early spring to prepare for the coming election.
While such a rumour might simply be intended to rally the troops around the prime minister at a difficult time or might merely be the product of wishful thinking, the period ahead could be just as unpredictable as recent weeks with totally unforeseeable implications for all parties.
There also are those who believe that if the international economic situation suddenly deteriorates in a serious way — which some fear — this could work to Harper’s advantage. Many voters tend to view the Conservatives as better stewards of the country’s economic policies than their adversaries.
Still others believe that if Canadian forces suddenly suffer serious casualties in Iraq or Syria, voters might rally around the Harper government during such a perilous time for Canada, especially if Harper were to call an early election to receive a mandate for the fighting in the Middle East, thus also avoiding potentially dangerous fallout arising from the forthcoming trial of Conservative Senator Mike Duffy.
Whatever happens in coming days regarding Harper’s political future could hold unpredictable consequences for all Canadians.
Harry Sterling, a former diplomat, is an Ottawa-based commentator.
