People will pass judgment on the track records and promises, but experts always insist it mostly comes down to the leaders.
Three markedly different individuals who became leaders in different ways will get their performance reviews Tuesday night.
B.C. Liberal Leader Christy Clark was born a politician and followed a standard trajectory. Student politics, committed party volunteer and full-fledged MLA by the time she was 30. She was a strong critic in Opposition and an easy pick for cabinet when the Liberals took over.
Then came a course change. She quit politics over various private differences with then-leader Gordon Campbell and spent five years on the sidelines as a broadcaster. She stormed back into the game in late 2010 after he quit, and beat four cabinet ministers to win the leadership in 2011.
She assumed the premiership when the party looked to be down and out. Then she snatched a slam-dunk win away from then-NDP leader Adrian Dix in 2013. It cemented the description of pollsters, pundits and political scientists as “the holy trinity of people who don’t know what they’re talking about.”
The loss was so crushing that when it came time to replace Dix, no one was interested. Then-MLA John Horgan bowed out, saying leadership wasn’t his thing. “You all know me to be a little bombastic at times ... I’m making a greater contribution when I’m free to just be me.”
A few weeks later, it became apparent no one else wanted to be “fettered by the shackles of leadership,” either. He was the only obvious contender, so he was cajoled into taking over by acclamation. Like Clark, he got into politics early on, but stayed on the staff side, as a senior adviser in the NDP governments of the 1990s.
He was well out of politics when, in an oft-told tale, he started yelling at his TV about the Liberals during their first term. A family member challenged him to do something about it, so he ran and won a seat in 2005.
Green Party Leader Andrew Weaver took some convincing to get where he is, as well. He has told crowds during the campaign that the former leader had to ask him four times before he agreed to run for office. He was a distinguished University of Victoria climate scientist when he signed on to Campbell’s climate action team in 2007 and became a fervent advocate. He also became a strident critic of the NDP, for its “reprehensible” position against the carbon tax in 2009.
After succumbing to the Green entreaties, he ran in Oak Bay-Gordon Head in 2013 and the party focused nearly all its attention there, making its breakthrough on the strength of Weaver’s work. This time around, he opens the Green platform with a little fib: “I am not a professional politician.” He is, and a very adept one.
The single biggest difference this time is the new three-way dynamic. The Liberals and NDP have never taken the Greens seriously before.
Clark slowed down the momentum on the climate-change drive and turned Weaver into a caustic critic of the Liberal government. But Clark only rarely returns the fire. For four years, Liberals have been conscious of how useful the Greens can be in bleeding the NDP vote base. So Clark tries to ignore Weaver’s attacks and even prop him up when she can.
“We disagree on tons of stuff, but we have had a very constructive relationship,” she said this week.
With her other opponent, not so much. A consistent feature of legislative sessions and the campaign is watching Clark bait or goad Horgan (“Calm down, John”) into losing his cool. Horgan has led a sustained attack on the government, but has to keep an uneasy eye on Weaver at the same time.
Clark’s baggage after six years has lowered her initial approval ratings. But Campbell never scored high on popularity and he won three times. Horgan is the fourth NDP leader to take on the Liberals and is conscious of their 0-4 record. But hope springs eternal in the B.C. NDP.
Weaver scores high personally, but his party’s radical platform gives many pause.
Love ’em or hate ’em, those are your choices.
