At what point does Justin Trudeau just understand?
Does disdainful public opinion not matter? Does his caucus rebellion not matter?
Does he intend to take the venerable Liberal Party of Canada – the so-called natural governing party – down with him next election as a fit of pique?
This is the year of stubborn leadership: U.S. President (still, if lame) Joe Biden, BC United Leader (still, in name only) Kevin Falcon, and now our prime minister in defiance of what anyone and his dog would suspect is a certain walk to certain rejection.
When the best a sitting prime minister’s aides can leak to the press is that there is a “divided opinion” in the ranks of his elected MPs – MPs, it should be noted, who rode his coattails and now want off the ride – this becomes an unhealthy context for not just politics but our country.
And when the best strategy for your party is to pray that your opponent will crash and burn – when there is no evidence of his party’s trajectory ready to stall in the high atmosphere and plummet – this even becomes an unhealthy context for what we believe is a modern democracy.
Canada needs a fair fight next election, not a coronation. It needs a debate on the fundamentals of the direction of our economy, our independence, our station in the world and our societal vision. The ring has to feature two fighters in the same weight class. Trudeau is not, and will no longer ever be, a contender for the belt.
Maybe the country needs a true channel change in turning to Pierre Poilievre of the Conservative Party, but maybe all it needs is for someone to kick the TV set. (Apologies to anyone under 30 who didn’t get the analogy – for your sake, let’s call it a reboot of the operating system.) No matter, Trudeau needs off the screen.
Wednesday’s caucus meeting of the Liberals hinted of a climax to the drama that has galvanized every Liberal I know. There appeared to be momentum for a secret ballot on the leadership, somewhat like what the Conservatives did with Erin O’Toole. But different rules across the aisle keep Trudeau from learning the true depth of dissent. Instead, we have a no-need-to-worry, no-story-here, move-on-people moment.
My sense is this isn’t a where-there’s-smoke, there’s-fire moment, either. It’s a where-there’s-fire, the-building-may-burn-to-the-ground moment.
Much would have been simpler if Trudeau had a successor at hand, but within caucus each possibility – Bill Morneau, Mark Garneau, Chrystia Freeland, François-Philippe Champagne – have either been driven out or have driven themselves out.
Wednesday’s interest rate news reminds us of how good the Bank of Canada can occasionally make us feel, and might jog some memories that the man in charge through the non-recession of 2008 and 2009, and the guy who moved Britain through Brexit against his will, was Mark Carney. He now lurks about and says he’s interested in politics as his next chapter. Most everyone infers he wouldn’t settle to be the follower of Trudeau’s successor – that he sees himself in the role.
Carney would be a quantum intellectual leap, but would probably make many of us feel like we’ve just returned to school – and his contest with Poilievre would be the smart guy we all detested against the guy who could talk his way out of the detention.
Which brings us to the latest edition of the Curious Case of Christy Clark.
For many months now our former 35th premier, the longest-serving female first minister in Canadian history and one of the country’s great retail political figures, has been in Québec learning French, a boutique language in British Columbia but a basic staple of national politicians.
She recently said, en français it should be noted, that she “would like to be part of the discussion about the future direction of the Liberal Party and the country." Mais, bien sur.
But it has everyone who has been to grade school concluding what she will not concede, what she will continue to demur out of decorum that the prize is not available (read: not quite yet), that Trudeau “has earned the right to make any decision about his leadership on his own,” but that we all know adds up to: she will be in, might even be in, the race for the Liberal leadership.
She was until recently a Red Tory, supporting Jean Charest’s failed 2022 bid for the federal Conservative leadership. Now she is a Blue Liberal, a Paul-Martinesque one, a free enterpriser who favours a far less interventionist role for government in the economy than does the incumbent prime minister.
She deserves to be in on the conversation, but if it isn’t going to happen in the next few weeks, maybe she should start one now. Looks like the obstinate guy won’t get off the road until she and others put it into the next gear.
Kirk LaPointe is a Glacier Media columnist with an extensive background in journalism
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